Johor's politicial fate - will Barisan Nasional remain?-YahooNews

The Malay leadership is so strong, yet so brittle.

This is the phrase used to describe the political scenario in Johor — a state known to be Barisan Nasional's (BN)  fortress. 

The ruling coalition's hold on Johor is reflected in the 25 parliamentary seats that it has, out of a total of 26 seats. At the state level, 50 seats are held by BN, leaving the opposition with just six seats.  But since the 2008 elections, the effects and influence of the opposition’s success across Malaysia have spilled over to the other states.

We spoke to a few analysts who observed that the Pakatan Rakyat's work in Johor is starting to chip BN's hold on Johor, causing support to tip slightly.  They concur with one electoral aspect — the Chinese vote — as being the a central factor in determining BN's performance in Johor in the upcoming 13th General Elections.

The Chinese vote

Chinese voters no longer find the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) relevant to them, hence the trend since 2008 has been to support parties under the opposition coalition, observes Professor Shamsul Amri Baharuddin from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

He explained that with the loss of support from the Chinese community, MCA's main threat is the opposition front's Democratic Action Party (DAP), which will force BN's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) to reconsider its strategy of fielding an MCA candidate in a Chinese dominated area. 

"UMNO may think about taking back the (MCA) seat, causing tension between parties under BN," he told us.

Social anthropology expert Shamsul finds that this change of strategy would not just affect Chinese dominated areas but also mixed seats, which are constituencies with close to equal proportion of Malay and Chinese communities.  

For Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst, Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, it is the Chinese voters who would make the difference to BN's hold in Johor.  He feels the performance of Singapore’s opposition parties in by-elections held in the island nation over the past few years is also a factor in influencing the Malaysian Chinese voting pattern. This is in addition to more Malaysians having access to alternative news via social media.  

In 2012, Singapore’s Workers' Party had retained its seat in Hougang and earlier this year caused an upset in Punggol East, taking the seat away from the ruling coalition led by the People’s Action Party.  

"Chinese voters are strategic voters and tend to vote differently for federal level and state level seats," observed this associate professor. This meant that these voters may very well support BN at the Parliamentary seats while giving the opposition the state seats, to create a "balance of power".

But, Dr Sivamurugan doesn't see Johor "falling" into the hands of PR, as he finds that Malay and Indian voters are gradually supporting BN again.

Target groups – working class or middle class?

Shamsul is quick to point out that while the success of BN in retaining close to 100 per cent of Johor hinges on the Chinese vote, these voters are not easy to predict.  

He explained that last year’s fiery debate between DAP secretary-general and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and MCA president Dr Chua Soi Lek did not address the right target groups, particularly if the objective was to boost the Chinese support.  He finds there are two groups that would influence how the working class Chinese communities cast their votes: the business community and the educationists.

We were told that an interesting trend was taking place in Malaysia’s election history, a trend where these specific groups voice their concerns through public statements a few weeks before the polls. 

"These views will be carried in the vernacular newspapers, read by mainly Chinese-speaking and working class communities. These views tend to provide a lead as to how the Chinese community will vote.  Observe this and you will be able to predict who the Chinese community will support," the founding director of the Institute of Ethnic Studies said.

Economic contracts

Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng says that BN's investment to improve Johor's economic well-being has worked in favour of the ruling coalition. 

"Bumiputera contractors have been benefiting from the Nusajaya project. It's unprecedented that any corridor (of development) in the country has seen this type of effort by the government to encourage economic activity in the area," he remarked.

The Malaysian government has promoted Iskandar Malaysia as an engine of growth, benefiting from Singaporean and Middle East investment, the independent political analyst said.

"When the economy is good, people will not want to rock the boat," Khoo pointed out.

He found that when the state government changed hands in Selangor, there were disputes on the awarding of contracts, leaving many people in the lurch.  "People don't want the same situation in Johor, be it Chinese, Malay or Indian."

Young voters are the new voters, but don't forget the veteran voters

For Johor, and similarly for other states in Malaysia, Shamsul says, "Don't forget the old voters."

As an example, don't ignore the Majlis Bekas Wakil Rakyat (Mubarak) or the Council for Former MPs and state assemblymen, he says.  

"Most of them are now Class F contractors and are still very influential at the grassroots level."

This group is "still hungry and still want to make money", says Shamsul, which meant that UMNO is pressured to manage their expectations.  "They would sway the vote as much as the Chinese communities in Johor."

One thing is for sure, points out UKM’s Dr Ahmad Nidzammudin, and that is the fact that Johoreans are more vocal now compared to the time before the 2008 elections took place.

"People are openly discussing political issues and even criticising state policies," Shamsul observed. And this is a trend that was not evident before.  

In Batu Pahat, for instance, he finds that the opposition front has been aggressive in carrying out political talks or ceramahs to gather support from the BN-dominated constituency - events that locals are actively taking part in.  

"Things are different now; people are braver about expressing their political opinions."

source : http://my.news.yahoo.com/johor-s-politicial-fate----072553361.html